Geospatial analysis of subnational poverty dynamics: A spatial and temporal framework for evidence-based policy
Keywords:
Gampaha District, GIS, poverty, poverty mapping, spatial analysis, Sri Lanka, temporal analysisAbstract
Poverty exhibits pronounced spatial and temporal variation, necessitating disaggregated analysis to inform targeted development policy. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of poverty in the Gampaha District of Sri Lanka at the Divisional Secretariat Division level between 2002 and 2012. Secondary data on the poverty headcount ratio and the population living below the poverty line were obtained from the Department of Census and Statistics. The analysis employed ArcGIS-based spatial techniques, including graduated color classification, unique value mapping, integrated bar chart visualization, and field calculations to derive division-level poverty indicators, enabling comparative mapping across two time periods. The results indicate an overall decline in poverty across the district, with the number of high-poverty divisions decreasing from three in 2002 to two in 2012. The maximum poverty headcount ratio declined from 12 percent to 11 percent, while the minimum rate decreased from 4 percent to 3 percent over the decade. However, poverty reduction was spatially uneven. Divisions such as Dompe recorded a substantial decline in the number of poor households, falling from 26,544 to 8,321, whereas Katana experienced a 4.1 percent increase in its poverty headcount ratio, shifting from a low to a high poverty category by 2012. The findings reveal persistent intra-district disparities and shifting poverty hotspots, underscoring the limitations of aggregate district-level statistics. By providing a spatially disaggregated and temporally comparative assessment, the study demonstrates the value of division-level poverty mapping for identifying vulnerable areas and informing region-specific, evidence-based poverty alleviation strategies in Sri Lanka.
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Data Availability Statement
The data supporting the findings of this study were obtained from publicly available sources, including the Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka, and the Humanitarian Data Exchange. Administrative boundary data are available through the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Additional processed datasets used in the analysis may be made available by the author upon reasonable request.
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